Prescott Valley secures $200,000 grant, launches housing needs assessment amid affordability crisis
PRESCOTT VALLEY, ARIZONA — March 3, 2025

Prescott Valley secures $200,000 grant, launches housing needs assessment amid affordability crisis

Prescott Valley town officials presented comprehensive housing needs assessment data showing severe affordability crisis and launched community survey to inform development of housing strategy plan.

Prescott Valley Confronts Housing Affordability Crisis with Data-Driven Needs Assessment and Federal CDBG Entitlement

Prescott Valley officials convened a standing-room town hall on March 3, 2025, to present preliminary findings from a $200,000 state-funded comprehensive housing needs assessment and to launch a community survey as the foundation for a housing strategy plan. The presentation, led by economist Danny Court of Elliott D. Pollan Company and Dr. Sheila Harris—founding director of the Arizona Department of Housing—laid bare the contours of an affordability emergency: 70% of Prescott Valley households earn less than $100,000 annually and are priced out of homeownership, while renters face median rents of $1,500–$1,600 for one-bedroom units requiring $65,000+ household incomes. Simultaneously, Town Manager Gilbert Davidson announced that Prescott Valley has been designated an entitlement community eligible for approximately $300,000 annually in Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds—a new fiscal lever for addressing housing and infrastructure gaps. The twin developments signal a critical inflection point: the town is moving beyond anecdotal concern to systematic, evidence-based policy development on housing, with federal resources newly available to implement solutions.

Key Speeches

"This would not be possible without a very generous grant from the Arizona Department of Housing we received a $200,000 grant that enabled us to do this process… you know this is an issue that it doesn't just affect Prescott Valley this affects every community in Arizona across this country um and as we see housing prices um continue to rise and basically um make it so that many of our community members people that are working in our schools our Public Safety uh Department uh you know some of our retail stores having to make very tough choices of not being able to live in our community that's a sad State." — Town Manager Gilbert Davidson

"Just yesterday around the dinner table my 15-year-old son just out of blue said dad you think I'll ever be able to afford a house when I'm an adult… that's you know I kind of really a hit home there you know that's my own son that's worried about his housing future I never thought about housing when I was 15 years old but you see that you know it's talked about so much that people are worried about their future." — Deputy Town Manager Ryan Judy, personal reflection on intergenerational housing anxiety

"Missing middle means if I make 60% to 120% of that median income so if I make $60,000 to $120,000 that's been a that's been a pain point in trying to find affordable housing for those households because if you make less than 60% of area median income there are government programs there's subsidized housing that you can qualify for you start making up just above that you no longer qualify uh and now we're looking at the private sector or some other you know public incentive public investment to try to get those households into an affordable house." — Danny Court, Elliott D. Pollan Company, on the income gap driving unaffordability

Timeline

Presentation: Demographic and Economic Context

Elliott D. Pollan Company's analysis established Prescott Valley's population and labor-force stability:

Housing Inventory and Pricing Crisis

The presentation exposed a structural mismatch between supply and affordability:

Existing inventory (2023 Census 5-year average, pre-dating recent apartment construction):

Price escalation:

Market-rate apartment developments:

Duplex and triplex rental data:

Subsidized/rent-restricted housing (Low-Income Housing Tax Credit units):

Affordability Crisis: Income-to-Housing Mismatch

The most damaging slide: household income distribution vs. housing costs.

Income profile:

Affordable home price analysis (reverse-engineered from income):

Essential worker affordability (single-income baseline):

Renter cost burden:

Homeowner cost burden:

National context: Court noted a recent Maricopa County poll finding 40% of current homeowners could not afford to purchase their own home at today's prices—illustrating that the problem is not unique to Prescott Valley but endemic to market conditions.

Missing Middle Housing Gap

The consultant team identified a critical policy target: households earning 60–120% of area median income (approximately $60,000–$120,000 annually in Prescott Valley).

Court explained the mechanism: Households below 60% AMI qualify for government subsidized housing (Low-Income Housing Tax Credit programs, Section 8 vouchers, etc.), while those above 120% AMI can access private market financing. The 60–120% band—encompassing essential workers, younger professionals, and service-sector employees—face a two-sided squeeze: ineligible for subsidized programs yet unable to afford market-rate ownership or stable rental options.

This category includes:

Housing Demand Forecast and Development Pipeline

State forecasts project:

This translates to:

Historical building has exceeded these projections:

The town is building ahead of demand forecasts, suggesting either speculative development or underestimation of population growth.

Missing Middle Housing as Policy Lever

Court outlined product types intermediate between single-family detached (most dense: 2–3 units/acre) and mid-rise apartments (4–6 stories):

These products are not government-subsidized but rely on private development economics; affordability gains come through density (lower land cost per unit) and smaller unit size, not public subsidy. Zoning code amendments and community character acceptance are prerequisites.

Community Development Block Grant Entitlement

Stephanie Robinson announced that Prescott Valley has qualified as an entitlement community under federal CDBG rules, making it eligible for approximately $300,000 annually in flexible federal funding (absent Congressional action). This marks a significant shift: the town previously relied on competitive grants and now has predictable, recurring federal resources.

Potential uses (to be determined by community input via survey):

Robinson emphasized that fund allocation will be shaped by survey results and community input. She framed this as complementary to the housing needs assessment: the assessment identifies gaps; CDBG funds and policy tools provide implementation capacity.

Public Input Mechanisms and Ongoing Survey

The town emphasized multiple pathways for resident input:

  1. Online survey: Available via QR code on agenda, town website, and social media; ~10 minutes to complete; 300+ responses received to date; town seeking sample approaching 50,000 (full town population) to ensure comprehensive representation
  2. In-person attendance: Planning & Zoning Commission meetings and Town Council meetings open to public comment
  3. Development Services transparency: All development applications, approvals, and project details are public records; Development Services and Neighborhood Services staff available for inquiries
  4. Survey write-in section: Space for narrative comments beyond multiple-choice questions
  5. Direct contact: Stephanie Robinson (Neighborhood Services Director) distributing business cards at event; email submissions welcomed and shared with consultant team
  6. Community dissemination: Town distributing survey cards to senior centers, school districts (via PTAs), faith-based organizations, workplaces, and social media

Robinson stated explicitly: "I want to hear all of it"—soliciting input from housing advocates, density skeptics, essential workers, and long-term residents alike. She committed to "well-rounded" input reflecting all perspectives.

Controversies & Context

Lakeshore Development Referendum: Court noted that an approved development project (assumed to be a major residential community) is subject to voter referendum; its fate remains uncertain. This project appears in the 2,300-unit pipeline but is flagged as contingent. The referendum reflects community division on density and development scale.

Water Resources and Infrastructure Capacity: Robinson addressed resident concerns (alluded to in her remarks) about water availability and infrastructure adequacy to support projected growth. She cited the town's strategic plan, which includes "water and land conservation" as a pillar alongside "quality of life" and "prosperous community," signaling that growth will be managed alongside resource sustainability. No specific water-constraint analysis was presented, but the town acknowledged the concern as legitimate and integrated into planning.

Community Character and Density: Robinson stressed that zoning code amendments enabling "missing middle" housing will require community buy-in and alignment with Prescott Valley's self-image. She did not mandate density but framed it as a policy choice requiring public deliberation: "what can we uh what can we support" in terms of housing type and density. This implies potential tension between affordability goals and preservation of existing neighborhood character.

Development Pace and Speculative Building: The gap between permitting (500–1,000 units/year) and demand forecast (400 units/year through 2030) suggests either speculative development ahead of actual demand or state forecasts that underestimate growth. Court noted that the town "has been outpacing [the] forecast to date," implying either rapid in-migration or builder inventory buildout. This could affect apartment absorption (currently 20% vacancy) and pricing dynamics if supply outpaces demand.

Next Steps and Timeline

  1. Ongoing data collection: Consultant team continues Census, assessor, and commercial data integration; survey collection ongoing (no stated end date, though Robinson emphasized urgency to reach broader sample)
  2. Barriers analysis: Consultant will stratify community by income and housing type to map affordability gaps
  3. Educational materials development: Town and consultant will develop reports and presentations for community dissemination
  4. Housing strategy formulation: Following public input closure and barrier analysis, town and consultant will draft policy recommendations (zoning code amendments, incentive programs, subsidy targets, CDBG allocation priorities)
  5. Town Council review and approval: No housing strategy will be "pinned to paper" without elected official sign-off; council retains final authority
  6. Multi-step public input: Multiple opportunities for resident feedback during strategy development phase
  7. CDBG fund allocation: Separate process; survey will inform priorities for $300,000 annual allocation

No specific timeline was provided for completion of housing strategy or final council approval.

Duration and Attendance

The event drew a standing-room crowd on a Monday evening (specific attendance count not stated in transcript). Town Manager Davidson remarked, "This is awesome to see so many of our residents that are interested and concerned and passionate about affordable housing needs and issues affecting our community on a Monday night." The presentation and Q&A session duration was not stated, but the transcript suggests a substantial program (Town Manager remarks, Deputy Town Manager remarks, Elliott D. Pollan presentation with 20+ data slides, Neighborhood Services follow-up remarks, and unspecified public Q&A).

Total meeting duration not stated in transcript.

Other Notable Items

CDBG entitlement impact: Beyond housing, the $300,000 annual CDBG allocation can address pedestrian safety, infrastructure, and quality-of-life investments. Robinson alluded to a prior fatality involving a young resident (circumstances not detailed) related to pedestrian infrastructure gaps, suggesting that sidewalk and traffic safety improvements are among community priorities for CDBG funding.

Consultant credentials: Elliott D. Pollan Company (Arizona-based since 1987; 90% statewide work) and Dr. Sheila Harris (founding director, Arizona Department of Housing) bring substantial policy legitimacy and housing expertise. Harris's background signals state-level collaboration and alignment with Arizona Department of Housing priorities.